Final Countdown

After the upset win by Creator (Tapit) in the final Grade I Derby prep, last Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby (Beyer 96), even with the other, favored Tapit, Cupid, out of the money and now out of the Derby, Gainesway's flagship sire has reclaimed the top spot on the 2016 YTD TDN General Sire List (NA/EU earnings only) from Coolmore Ashford's Uncle Mo (click here). Tapit now has 52 winners in NA/EU this year (as of Tuesday), and the earners of $4.65-million, and is now the leading NA/EU sire in 2016 by number of Graded/Group SW (GSW), with seven, topping Bernardini, who has six. Interestingly, all the Black-Type Winners (BTW) by both horses this year are GSW, which must be an indicator of class. Tapit is also the leading sire of Black-Type Horses (22), as well as of Graded/Group stakes horses (GSH), with 18; so 82% of his BTH are GSH. Bernardini has 92% GSH/BTH (12/13). Uncle Mo, for his part, has now sired 25 winners this year, and the earners of $4.43-million (including the $1-million bonus won by Nyquist in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby). He leads the three Black-Type categories which Tapit doesn't lead, with eight 2016 BTW, two Grade I winners, and four Grade I horses (placed).

It is perhaps not a coincidence then that Tapit and Uncle Mo between them are likely to be responsible for nearly a third of the GI Kentucky Derby field. Tapit's remaining three, with the defection of Cupid, are: GI Arkansas Derby winner Creator; GII Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth S. winner Mohaymen; and the G2 UAE Derby winner, the Japanese-trained colt, Lani. Uncle Mo is represented by the undefeated favorite and future Darley stallion, Nyquist; GI Wood Memorial S. winner Outwork; and the subsequently luckless GIII LeComte S. winner, Mo Tom, who inherits 20th place on the points board and a guaranteed spot in the starting gate with Cupid's defection.

To return to the General Sire List for a moment, it's notable that, as of Tuesday, six of the 12 North American sires to have over $2-million in NA/EU earnings this year represent the Seattle Slew sire line through A.P. Indy. Besides Tapit, back at number one, Lane's End's Mineshaft, sire of last weekend's GII Oaklawn H. winner Effinex and GI Arkansas Derby second Suddenbreakingnews, has jumped into fifth place on the list ($2.56-million), just ahead of Darley's Bernardini ($2.55-million), as noted now second only to Tapit with six 2016 GSW. The full brothers Flatter (Claiborne, eighth, $2.47-million) and Congrats (WinStar, 10th, $2.25-million); and the venerable Malibu Moon (Spendthrift, 12th, $2.17-million) round out the five A.P. Indy sons and one grandson (Tapit, by Pulpit) who comprise half of America's top sires this year.

Besides Uncle Mo, the other non-A.P. Indy-line sires with over $2-million in 2016 NA/EU earnings, include: third-ranked by earnings, Lane's End's Candy Ride ($3.45-million), leading sire of 2016 NA/EU winners, with 64, including GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner; Ashford's even more venerable Giant's Causeway (fourth, $2.68-million), sire of two Derby contenders in GI Toyota Blue Grass S. winner Brody's Cause, and the Pletcher-trained sleeper, GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby winner Destin. Hill 'n' Dale's Curlin (seventh, $2.49-million) is the sire of the impressive wet-track GI Santa Anita Derby winner Exaggerator, now the likely Derby second favorite; Darley's Medaglia d'Oro (ninth, $2.41-million) is the sire of super-filly Songbird; and another now-venerable, Lane's End's City Zip (11th, $2.24-million) rounds out the non-A.P. Indy line half of the current top 12.

If we want to factor in worldwide earnings, including Hong Kong, Japan, and particularly Dubai World Cup night, the picture at the top does change a bit. Darley's flagship sire, Dubawi, racked up $5.75-million in earnings on Dubai World Cup night, between Postponed's win in the $6-million G1 Sheema Classic, and Mubtaahij's bang-up second in the G1 Dubai World Cup. So Dubawi leads all NA/EU sires by worldwide earnings (click here) with 27 winners this year, and the earners of $8.38-million. Tapit had intended GI Kentucky Derby runner Lani, who is trained in Japan, win on the big night, too, in the $2-million G2 UAE Derby, which means Tapit is second on the worldwide earnings list, with 58 winners and earners of $6.84-million (leader by NA/EU earnings, with $4.65-million). California Chrome's California-based sire (Harris Farms) Lucky Pulpit ranks third, with the earners of almost $6.7-million, of which $6,210,000 has been won by California Chrome in his three 2016 starts.

Of the current top 10 NA/EU 2016 sires with over $3-million in worldwide earnings, besides Dubawi; Empire Maker (seventh, $3.20-million with first Japanese crop 4-year-olds of 2016); and fellow Darley F2007 sire Shamardal (eighth, $3.18-million), the balance of the top 10 are the top Kentucky 2016 sires: fourth Uncle Mo ($4.5-million worldwide), fifth Candy Ride ($3.5-million), sixth Bernardini ($3.29-million), eighth Congrats ($3.11-million) and 10th Giant's Causeway ($3.04-million).

Both these tables will of course look a lot different by the time a couple of Guineas and the May 7 GI Kentucky Derby have been run in the next three weeks, but as noted the current one-two by 2016 NA/EU earnings, Tapit and Uncle Mo, could provide 30% of the Derby field. That field is looking pretty well set now. Paul Reddam's racing stable's undefeated Nyquist, from Uncle Mo's first crop, is deservedly, on form, clear favorite around the 5-2 mark. He hasn't run big speed figures, but then again he's never had a great trip, either, always harried for the lead but kicking clear as a 2-year-old, then overcoming a double-wide trip in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The third and fourth-place finishers in the Juvenile, Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway) and Exaggerator (Curlin) came back to win Grade I races the week after Nyquist remained undefeated in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby. The form looks strong.

Then there is a group of maybe seven colts who could be pretty well matched. Exaggerator's impressive win in the GI Santa Anita Derby earned a Beyer of 103, but on a sloppy track which may have played to his strengths; still, he figures to be second favorite. Santa Anita Derby second Mor Spirit (Eskendereya); GI Toyota Blue Grass S. winner Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway); GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner (Candy Ride); GII Lambholm SouthTampa Bay Derby winner Destin (Giant's Causeway); GI Arkansas Derby winner Creator (Tapit); and GI Wood Memorial winner Outwork (Uncle Mo) all have claims, and some handicappers also seem prepared to still forgive recent beaten favorites Mohaymen (Tapit) and 'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy).